Chingwagging about 2013

On a freezing cold night in central London, a group of about 200 tech heads congregated at the Slug and Lettuce on Wardour Street. Bit of an unusual venue

Last night Chinwag selected a panel of experts and commentators to look five years into the future and predict what might lye ahead for technology, mobile, social networks and digital media. Whilst overall an engaging experience, there appears to be a lot of uncertainty and not just because they were asking speakers to discuss the unknown. Predictions were few and far between, with the odd dash of hypocrisy too.

The speakers on the night were:
Richard Titus (RT) – Head of user experience, BBC Future Media and Technology
Jonathan Mitchener (JM) – Futurologist and Principal Research Scientist, Devices, BT
Simon Collister (SC) – Head of Digital, Consumer Practice, Weber Shandwick
Jamie Coomber (JC) – Head of Digital Strategy, Profero
Neville Hobson (NH) – Blogger / Podcaster / Communicator
Ewan MacLeod (EM) - Mobile Industry Review

JM kicked things off by predicting that without doubt more people will be using the Internet on devices in 2013, to which EM added that more people would have their first experience of the Internet by mobile device than by computer. He added that by 2010 over 612m were expected to do so in China and India alone.

JC added that whilst we will still be using multiple devices in 2013, our online lives will be held in one central hub, with open access across our email, Facebook, Twitter, Amazon etc.

Blogger NH added, “the hurdle to overcome is infrastructure, there is no magic bullet”. “The artificialness of the barriers that exist need to be solved somehow, before adoption spreads and the walls come down”

Chair of the debate, RT mentioned Ofcom who had predicted carriers moving from a channel of pay monthly subscriptions to pay per play. Apparently these contracts are becoming less financially viable.

Great.. We pay through the nose as it is!! 35p for a Vodafone user to call another network outside of their free minutes package. Ridiculous charges for mobile Internet charges too!

RT added an example. Mobile networks already try and tie customers in for 18 month contracts, but 24-36 month deals will become prevalent as they lockdown their users. “Gone are the days of the all you can eat deals!”

The topic moved onto mobile devices, with JM taking the lead and outlining his three ‘C’s of future devices.

Co-operation – The devices will work with multiple software platforms and function with all types of hardware – Essentially open source taken to a whole new level
Clarification – Easier access and a more friendly experience when using different social networks. A deeper understanding of what you want to do
Connection – Your device is clever enough to know when and to whom to connect to, dependent on your preferences and lifestyle

Next up was a question served up from the floor along the lines of.. What would our biggest digital annoyance be in 2013?

JC added simply, “open social Ids”.

Reading between the lines what was meant is a lack of open social ID. What are desired are one-click logins/data entry passports for use across multiple platforms that carry your profile and carry details wherever you might go. For instance when joining a new social network, instead of filling out tedious amounts of detail over and over again, your one login will carry a photo, your D.O.B, likes/dislikes, background with you.

JM added from his vast experience that open innovation works. Gone are the days of in-house, closed mindsets. Collaboration on a global scale with anyone, not necessarily colleagues, but other users etc solves problems.

I think we are already seeing this though, Wikipedia is an obvious example. A practical example is Configipedia created by Tideway Systems. Tideway has provided a forum for debate and development that means users can share information, patches etc and drive the product forwards.

When RT was at Razorfish in 1998, it invested in a vending machine that dispensed soft drinks with a text message. Mobile commerce! Something the World has yet to fully grasp.

EM hoped that by 2013 contact less payment such as the Razorfish example above would be commonplace. On this subject JM added a neat example of how the Third world is getting in on the act too. In Africa payment by text is common, as they don’t trust the banks with their money. Bit like over here really eh? Anyway back to Africa… JC discussed how mobile devices have been adopted to enhance lives in Africa, not just as an entertainment device like in the West. Villagers who have to travel miles for food can now text a butcher shop and ask for meat to be reserved, so their daily trips are no wasted and families don’t starve.

EM added another African tale, whereby farmers can check on their mobiles what the price of wheat is selling for and decide if they should take their produce to market on that day, or hold out for another day when the prices might be more favourable.

RT asked, “Will the Third world surpass Europe and be more mobile?”

NH responded with an instant “NO”. He believes that Silicon Valley will always lead the way in advancements, but the process of getting technologies to market is problematic.

Pretty bold statement. Personally I’d have thought the East is ahead… Hmmm, one to ponder.

Unsurprisingly, the topic of privacy arose with mixed views from the panel. JM was all for data sharing, as long as it was beneficial to all those concerned. He gave a cracking example of when at a conference on the East coast he was given an electronic name badge. He was chatting to a friend, when, on his friends badge a message came up asking him to move to the auditorium as the conference was about to begin. Fascinating that the technology knew where he was and whom he was talking to and that he was more likely to read a message on his friends badge than on his!! This is a great example of giving away information to receive something useful back. After the conference he was presented with a list of participants, ordered with the people he spoke to most and found most interesting first!!!

That said, Tesco probably has more data than we realise about us and our habits via the Clubcard than any company could ever dream of!

JM went on to explain that as more of our lives become exposed online, we as humans would have to make more decisions and become ultimately more responsible.

NH brought up how several US companies are now listing the fact they don’t restrict access to Facebook as a benefit on job adverts. Generation Y isn’t interested in life assurance and pensions, more can they found out if their mate Dave got so drunk at the weekend he ended up in Solihull rather than Slough.

There was a sticking point for me on the night though. On one hand open source technology was dismissed by the panellists as having no real benefit on the man in the street. I thought this was extremely naïve. Especially as towards the end of the night when discussing the current economic conditions, the panel agreed the time was right for small, innovative individuals to come to the fore. Essentially open source breeds this kind of individual, right?

As the evening drew to a close, the ‘F’ word came up again. RT discussed that last year he was debating whether Facebook would be able to overtake Myspace. I think we all know the answer to that. As such, 2013 is a very long way away and the Internet is still very much in its infancy. A lot more laptops, flash drives, hard drives and ultimately jobs will be lot before we full understand the consequences of our online actions and what the true power of the Internet is.